An August 2021 update of my Robo War Experiment as a follow up to the Mid Year (https://seedly.sg/posts/mid-year-performance-up...) and July update (https://seedly.sg/posts/robo-war-experiment-jul...).
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I am piqued by your experiment.
Starting mine, and doing some transfers here and there (running out of money ready).
1) portfolio 1 will be just buy Isac through interactive brokers. Start with 6k sgd. Monthly top-up 1k. This portfolio will further buy additional 1k for every 8+% drop in isac vs the year average (so may or may not trigger).
2) portfolio 2 under srs will buy 6k of the lion global global stock index, and then monthly top up 1k.
3) portfolio 3 under srs endowus. Start with 6k capital with allocation 70% global index, 30% S&P. Monthly top up 1k. Endowus algorithm will calculate how much to allocate the top-up to either index.
4) portfolio 4 under cpf endowus. I already had a wide mix of funds from Jan 21, so no change to its allocation, but 60% of it is global index / S&p, with remaining 40% spread out among emerging markets, bonds, esg. This one start with 12k (selling down from current 30k), and monthly top up 2k. So proportion wise is similar to above.
With these four portfolio, what I can probably test over 12 months (before srs run out of money)...
A) compare portfolio 1 strategy isac with top-up on dips, if it will be superior to portfolio 2 which just monthly dca
B) compare portfolio 2 vs portfolio 3 - whether endowus algorithm to allocate between two index will prove statistically superior (after deducting access fees) to plain dca global index
C) compare portfolio 2, 3, portfolio 4 - whether just one or two index will be superior to a mix of funds.
Any thoughts or suggestions on how to improve test case?
Wow. Thank you for doing this - This is extremely interesting to see. I have quite a bit of reading to do to catch up on your experiment.
I was quickly glancing through your first two posts; so your lump sum was in Jan and you DCA from Feb onward? I'm quite surprised to see your SA's return being so low.
Thanks for sharing these updates!...
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