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Jonathan Ng
16 May 2019
Penultimate Economics Undergrad at Singapore Management University
Hi there! I went to look up on MAS monetary policy in 2018 and here is what I've got:
TL;DR
Appreciation of SGD by MAS in 2018
The MAS allowed the SGD to appreciate through 2018 after both monetary policy reviews in April & October 2018.
The MAS uses SGD appreciation, which corresponds to tighter monetary policy, in a bid to slow down overheated economic growth and combat inflation. This makes imports cheaper in SGD and cools demand for exports.
April 2019 MAS Monetary Policy Review
The MAS downgraded its forecast range for core inflation to 1-2% for 2019 and held steady on its monetary policy by maintaining the current rate of SGD appreciation. This call was also due to weaker GDP growth and the US Federal Reserve pausing its monetary policy tightening.
Moving ahead, economists predict the MAS policy stance will likely be unchanged in October.
Role of MAS
The MAS is Singapore’s central bank & financial regulatory authority. It manages the Singapore Dollar (SGD) against a trade-weighted basket of currencies of Singapore’s major trading partners and competitors.
Singapore adopts an exchange-rate-centered monetary policy due to the small and open nature of our economy & our dependence on trade.
Effect of SGD Appreciation on Investments
The SGD appreciation will attract foreign investors as they will gain from the proceeds of the sales of shares and dividends when converted back to their home currency, assuming the SGD continues appreciating more than their home currency.
Similarly, Singaporeans holding foreign stocks will have to bear in mind the currency conversion when they receive dividends and sell their shares in foreign currency. This is also assuming the SGD continues appreciating more than the foreign currency.
Effect of SGD Appreciation on Singapore’s Economy
With a stronger SGD, the cost of imported manufacturing inputs and consumer goods will be cheaper. Our exports will become more expensive to other countries, helping to moderate demand-push inflation.
In the long term, the steady appreciation of SGD keeps inflation low and stable, which preserves the purchasing power of Singaporeans’ income and savings. It also provides a stable and conducive macro environment for businesses to take on long-term investments, enhancing competitiveness & promoting sustained quality economic growth for Singapore.
Hope this helps!
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With longterm investing currency developments become less important,
the situation can change quickly. Yes, sure there are market reactions, but
often not as predicted, particularly in the 'longer run'.