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Anonymous

Asked on 04 Jul 2020

Just started investing, is my portfolio good to go for long term?

Am 23 now with emergency funds and insurance settled. I have accumulated 50k to invest.

Previously I started with robos but am considering to move to IBKR now as I understand the fees is $3 for <25 years old and has good FX rates.

The portfolio which I plan to buy is the following, meant for passive investing in long term:

  • QQQ

  • VTI

  • ARKK

  • VGT

Are they good buys? Also am confused about the Ireland 15% tax, is it really better and if so does that mean I buy EQQQ instead of QQQ?

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Frankie Rappaport
Frankie Rappaport
Top Contributor

Top Contributor (Jul)

Level 9. God of Wisdom
Updated on 05 Jul 2020

Hi, dear Anon,

principally You seem to follow my own style, besides VTI you choose

three technology ETFs. They had and have high potential, expect a lot

of volatility but also risk.

Possibly You already read my text?: https://seedly.sg/questions/what-is-your-general-investing-philosophy-strategy

Standard thinking - i assume - would advise against being invested in

such a high share of technology companies, especially as a beginning investor.

I would never recommend that allocation to other persons, but to be honest,

I for myself choose a similar approach like You.

Make extra sure, that You never panic when there is a tech stock or general drop

down. Even when Your portfolio should halve stay then with it.

Also recognize that You have a lot of overlap with all these ETFs,

even VTI has 6 tech companies under it's top 10 holdings: Microsoft Corporation 4.67% Apple Inc. 4.25% Amazon.com, Inc. 3.44% Facebook, Inc. Class A 1.81% Alphabet Inc. Class A 1.45% Alphabet Inc. Class C 1.38% Johnson & Johnson 1.31% Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Class B 1.18% Visa Inc. Class A 1.11% Procter & Gamble Company 0.97%

You can calculate Your ETF overlap here: https://www.etfrc.com/funds/overlap.php

QQQ & VGT: 48% overlap by weight

QQQ & VTI: 34% overlap by weight

VGT & VTI: 26% overlap by weight

My own thinking is, that technology will always be the driver of progress

of societies and economies, thus the high potential.

One important point is that the U.S. were always the tech leaders for

decades, but can they persist as leader into the future?

Surely China will be upcoming, and in the best case scenario there will be

a win-win situation by a U.S.-China global codominance. But it could also happen

that China soon will be technology leader #1. Then the U.S. tech stocks could drop a lot.

As to Your question: the traditional approach was to recommend to retail investors a mixture of stocks and bonds. Bonds for stability, but this stability and performance (5-7% per year in the past) is not valid anymore. My own approach (though I'didnt follow it yet) would be to substitute bonds for gold, as to stability, but there will not be generated income by gold, only costs (for storing safely).

Investing icon Burton Malkiel recommends currently to substitute bonds with dividend stocks, or better dividend stock ETFs, which You own already with VTI (1.91% dividend yield per year). Here is an interesting recent podcast where he is interviewed:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/episode-023-dr-burton-malkiel-host-rick-ferri/id1436401528?i=1000482482893

He was the first one to suggest to stay with average returns (passive investing), which his friend Jack Bogle then enacted with index funds. (They had arguments over ETFs, which interestingly were a no-go for Bogle).

What I could recommend: I feel You're in need of better diversification.

Some alternatives would be to have more global/other diversification with appropriate ETFs for:

global allocation (MSCI World, MSCI ACWI, FTSE World)

China (here it is very difficult to know which index is the best):

?A50, ?CSI300, ?ex state owned, ?PGJ, or technology ETF CQQQ

Biotechnology

some European exposure

Emerging markets possibly are to risky and not better than western countries + China

physical gold could be nice

REITs (U.S: VNQ, Europe: IQQP, Singapore S-REIT ETFs, global REIT ETFs).

As to Ireland domiciled ETFs: they do better, when the dividend yield is high and the TER fees comparable, there is no good definition for 'high dividend' ETFs, however for VOO or VTI with around 2% dividend yield Ireland-domiciled ones have better overall performance when withholding tax is acknowledged.

GOOD LUCK, take care !​​​

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Question Poster

05 Jul 2020

Hey Frankie, thanks for your detailed answer! Yes, I have already read you thread and many others before posting the question. Regarding your reply, does that mean that I could perhaps drop VTI and VGT and just focus on buying QQQ since there are heavy overlaps on tech? I realised many recommend IWDA as it covers quite broadly, would this mix and ratios make sense? 50% QQQ 40% IWDA 7% EIMI (I noticed CQQQ is somewhat like EIMI but more diverstified) 3% ARKK Planning to buy and hold for the next 30-40 years. Thanks! I have decided not to go for biotech as I lack understanding in that field, and I personally find EIMI safer than just China+USA.
Frankie Rappaport
Frankie Rappaport

05 Jul 2020

Hey, 30-40 years that is one very excellent approach. It is difficult for me to make recommendations, and then I myself do not what I should (reducing my heavy technology to more standard and world companies ETFs). You always should think for Yourself, since I am not an finace advisor, what You could initially do is also to experiment a bit with different allocations. QQQ was excellent and, I feel will be excellent in the future, there are also a lot of non-technology companies interestingly in QQQ ! But when I should make one more important recommendation than that, it would be to integrate a major share of an SP500 ETF like VOO or VUSD, that also gives almost 2% dividend yield per year, Ireland-domiciled are better performing because of lower 15% withholding tax, so VUSD is maybe even better than VOO. The SP500 should be a 'backbone' and QQQ, though promising not have such a high share. Notice also that in the SP500 are already integrated a lot of technology and QQQ companies (overlap 40% !). .............................................................................................................................. I can also share just to Your notice a real world portfolio I created for a family member since 04/2019 with 13 ETFs (still overlap) and 2 stocks (single stock however is nothing to recommend, You know), here. Rather globalized, but very (?too) technology heavy ... ETFs: 23.9% VANGUARD S&P 500 UCITS ETF ISIN: IE00B3XXRP09 5.8% VNQ (U.S. REITS) ISIN: US9229085538 4.5% EQQQ INVESCO MARKETS NASDAQ-100 UCITS ETF ISIN: IE0032077012 4.9% VGT ISIN: US92204A7028 8.3% FBT ISIN: US33733E2037 6.9% IHI (U.S. Medical Devices) ISIN US4642888105 5.4% IQQP (Europe REITS) ISIN: IE00B0M63284 5.2% ISHARES OMX STOCKHOLM CAPPED UCITS ETF - SEK ACC ISIN: IE00BD3RYZ16 4.7% iShares TecDAX(DE) ISIN DE0005933972 5.3% UBS ETF (CH) SPI MID - A CHF DIS ISIN: CH0130595124 4.1% UBS ETF (CH) SMIM - A CHF DIS ISIN: CH0111762537 8.2% CQQQ ISIN: US46138E8003 4.9% XTRACKERS NIKKEI 225 UCITS ETF - 1D JPY DIS ISIN: LU0839027447 ..................................................... STOCKS: 0.4% INVESTOR AB SER. A >>> interesting: holding company + dividends ISIN: SE0000107401 7.5% AMZN (Amazon) ISIN: US0231351067
SG Invest St-neve
SG Invest St-neve, Manager at SG INVEST by ST-NEVE
Level 3. Wonderkid
Answered on 06 Jul 2020

Wow! It is amazing you can accumulate 50K. not everyone gets to do that at your age.

IBKR is a good choice. I'm using it too. Your portfolio is considered conservative for a young person like yourself. You may want to have a look at this portfolio as reference.

Cheers

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