Asked on 28 Apr 2020
End of the world investing strategies
If end of the world is near, we should not think about investment.
We should think about our family and neccessaties like food and water lol.
On the other hand, if one can buy stakes in companies that provide those neccessaties and we can have some control over it, that would be good too. Haha.
I would buy a farm. Stock rice and dried goods. Read LKY's book, "The Singapore Story." He went in depth on the events of WW2.
I would say that the likelihood of a real war is low. We have enough infrastructure in place to avoid it.
I think in such a scenario, you would probably thinking more of preparation for the essential things first such as food, water and shelter. You will also be doing things that are in the best interest of your family, and spend time with them even more.
You will need to be mentally prepared for any outcomes including death. I think preparation for death is something very important even when the world isn't ending. It is the one guaranteed event that will happen in our life. Mortality of our life helps us realise that nothing last forever. I would invest more in my time in personal reflection, prayer and contritions.
Three Gs would probably cross your mind during those periods. God, "guns", and gold.
I would argue that a little bit of gold/silver would be good as they are after all, real money by characteristics alone.
For pandemic, we saw stock market climbing high as more liquidity gets injected into the market to keep it on a life support. There was also an increase in the number of new traders/speculators in the markets as people stay at home longer. But these has also created such a huge disconnect between the real economy and the stock market. Deglobalisation will cause supply chain disuprtion, including for physical metals. I think if second and third wave continues, mines and mints will be severely disrupted, causing gold price to push higher. Price for meat and dairy products will likely increase as well since meat factories and farms are severely affected by the virus. Gold will be a hedge against such an extreme inflation to preserve purchasing power.
For war, stock markets would most likely be down and internet may not be accessible to everyone to prevent unecessary intel for the enemy through IG stories, Facebook comments or TikTok. Reits would be totally irrelevant if you see industrial/retail buildings getting demolished by enemy aircrafts. Essentials would be very important. Having 3-5 months supply of family ration would be ideal at home, while men gets enlisted back to the military for the fight of our lives.
Other than gold, you will probably see short term debt securities by the governemt such as "war bonds" to finance the military for the major global war. This has happened before back in WW2. Many factories were also used to support the war efforts to provide supplies for our troops. That will be the new normal for the industries if war happend in the modern day.
Having a little bit of gold would be good as a universal and temporary medium of exchange while a new government restructures and issues a new form of currency after the war.
In 1933, Gold was around USD20. Today, it is around USD 1800+. Purchasing power remained almost the same since then. Gold isn't much of an investment actually, but it is a store of value for our next generation. Gold is money after all.
Together with the rest of essential things, gold is a yes for me. But I do hope such a global war will never happen in our lifetime.. Or even a second/third wave of the pandemic.
If end of the world, i would not even think about investing!!!
I would invest in time...spending time with my family for last momen before world end.
It depends on your investment objective, alongside with other factors, e.g. risk appetitie, investment horizon.
Precious metals have been a reliable form of investment since the old days. Therefore, it may be a viable option for investment. However, investors are advised to do their own research before any purchase.
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