facebookSyfe 9% downside risk portfolio - target composition of 30% equities, 60% bonds and 10% gold Forecasted returns of 7.x% p.a. over 5 years seem implausibly high? - Seedly

Advertisement

Anonymous

16 Oct 2020

Robo-Advisors

Syfe 9% downside risk portfolio - target composition of 30% equities, 60% bonds and 10% gold Forecasted returns of 7.x% p.a. over 5 years seem implausibly high?

I'm having a hard time believing that, for such a conservation allocation of assets, the 'internal backtested data' delivers an annualized return of 6.x%.

Can someone explain to me how is this possible when the historic long-term returns of a diversified 100% equity portfolio (eg IWDA/S&P 500) is 9.x%? Moreover, won't the low-interest rate environment, which will likely persist for these few years, further depress bond yields?

Also, are the forecasts/returns values displayed net of fees?

Discussion (2)

What are your thoughts?

Learn how to style your text

Syfe

16 Oct 2020

Hey there, thanks for your interest in Syfe. You've raised some valid questions.

Firstly, having a 30% equity allocation does not necessary mean that your expected returns should be lower. In fact it is possible to derive a return from bond-heavy portfolios as well since bonds help buffer portfolio losses during certain periods of time.

The Global portfolios are not built based on return potential but instead by a client's individual preference for the risk he/she wants to undertake. A 100% equity portfolio (eg IWDA/S&P 500) may give 9.x% returns but it will undergo far more volatility than a risk-managed portfolio like the 9% downside risk portfolio. What is the risk-return tradeoff an investor is comfortable with?

On bond yields, it is true that we can expect yields to be depressed to a certain extent but inevitably with lowered interest rates, bond prices typically tick up as well. For instance, the ABF singapore bond index fund is up 7%+ YTD although its yield is around 1.9%.

Lastly, the forecast / return figures you see on our website do not account for fees. Our fees start from 0.4% to 0.65% per year.

To understand more about our portfolios, please scehdule a complimentary call with our wealth advisors. They'll be better able to provide personalised advice.​​​

If you feel it's too good to be true and suspicious, you can avoid it. Alternatively, you can further analyse their methods and math. Do note history dont always fortell future.

Write your thoughts

Advertisement