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Anonymous

21 May 2020

General Investing

Is there still a place for value investing with the changing market and economy?

The market and economy has been changing and has changed ever since Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett's time. As such, are the principles with value investing still valid. What are your views?

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All those gains by growth stocks over the last 10 years were shedded within the last few months. If would be even uglier if Fed had not stepped in to pump the market with an unprecedented mandate to print money. Most of those gains were done mainly be sharebuy backs irregardless whether the stock was undervalued, and now a handful of companies are finding them lacking in cash to tide the current crisis. Growth investing dont mean much if you cant jump off the ship in advance of a tsunami ahead. Tsunami dont happen often, but when it does the damage it done could be long-lasting, and your judgment prior to it matters.

Dont compared the average retail investor with only a few to at most hundreds of thousands at hand to WB. The current WB is a victim of his early success, so much so that Berkshire is literally spitting billions out on a yearly basis these days, there's just not enough sizeable "valued" opportunities to deploy its massive cash stash to move the needle meaningfully.

WB is now 89 years old now. After outperforming the general market for approx half a century before returning back to mortal levels, that does not sound like a shabby position to be in. Just becos the man had lost his "midas" touch over the last decade does not invalidate the principles of value investing.

An impt part of value investing is investing within your circle of competence, if you are currently in yours 70s/90s, how much new-age consumerism trend(s) can you keep up to date? As long you made your pot(s) of gold before your hair start greying, who care about you underperforming the market in your waning years.​​​

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I believe not.

Also the very definition and classification of all these different styles (value, growth, momentum ...) possibly is a flawed theoretical concept. Look at the less successful than SP500, but still honest famous value investors like Bill Miller and some others. They believe in their system, which is based on market timing, which - given they are no prophets - seem like hybris.

Here, in this chart You can see the trailing 10 year performance (auto-updated current chart, without dividends) of cheap&large&successful VOO (Vanguard SP500 ETF) versus famous Value style Miller Opportunity Fund (LGOAX) and Value stock (BRK.A, Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffet):

You can see that the VOO (green line) is more successful. Acknowledge also that LGOAX and BRK.A do not distribute a dividend. VOO does however distribute dividends around 2% per year and these are not included in the chart, so the VOO is even more successful than the chart could tell !

You could argue, O.K., the Covid crisis could have had some extraordinary transient drag onto these very famous Value style investors returns.

But here the same chart (10 year), ending at the maximum level immediately before (19.02.2020) the Covid crisis.

I'd ask: When these two intelligent and honorable Value investors of fame with all their resources do not beat the SP500 over the last 10 years:

How could we retail investors be successful (meant compared to appropriate indices) in stock picking?

Do You have a convincing answer?

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Hi anon, this is an interesting question. I believe value investing still has its place right now. I...

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