Is $30 a good price to enter on DBS (D05) assuming if fall continues. For medium term holding of around 1-2 years. What in your opinion would be a fair price? Or $28 at the next support level perhaps?

Stock market has been correcting even more as a result of this war rubbing salt to the wound right after the sell off since late last year(?) initiated by news of the imminent upcoming few rate hikes. Needless to say my total portfolio is all in the red, down close to 50%, might have to wait out half a decade to recoup. Oh well, back to the subject title... Portfolio comprises of top 10 s-reits, uob, ocbc, vwra and a bunch of shitty chinese stocks (too embarass to pen their names). No dbs in portfolio.

Just realized there is a combined excess cash of around $15k sitting in a few brokerage accounts doing nothing, thinking might as well consolidate them and get into dbs to "complete the picture" lol. That 15k were mainly dividends collected in past one year. On hindsight, I can't help but ponder if my laziness to DCA faithfully has been a blessing in disguise since those dividends if reinvested in past one year would have resulted in average prices which mathematically amount to more losses.

Not to digress further, today's price for D05 went as low as $31, while analysts' target prices ranges from $34 to $41.x. The foremost important question, what price would you determine D05 a fair price to enter based on DCF or other valuation aproach? Or technically buying around previous support level? If so, am I reading the chart correctly the support zone is between $29.87 - $30.5?

And glancing through all those analyst reports suggested fundamentally D05 is still a good stock to buy and hold. However the point to note is that those reports were released way before the war so all the more I'm telling myself to take them with a pinch of salt as I have been doing since the good-ol-days I've self-sabotaged my portfolio when buying into chinese stock just basing on analysts reports. Costly lesson learnt.

Now that all 'smart' money had flowed into energy, commodities and the likes, adding fuel to high inflation and that for sure will not be easing without tough intervention by the fed and central banks. With that as a backdrop and asuming the war did not drag on multiyear, banking sector should be among the first to recover with more aggressive rate hikes, logically speaking isn't it? What about consumer banking being cyclical in nature? How would that add pressure in the opposit direction of bank stock recovering?

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CH

09 Mar 2022

don't worry. everyone has their fair share of mistakes. even Warren Buffett/Berkshire makes mistakes. Anyone who show their winnings only or claims to be able to time the market, is hiding their losers or being untruthful.
I am of the opinion that the 3 banks move in tandem of one another. adding DBS to already UOB and OCBC. usually people pick and choose stocks in order not to mirror the index.
i don't really look at charts. but valuation wise, to me is more than DCF or a single matrix. you have to consider whether you trust DBS management will continue to grow the business, whether MAS will step in again to limit dividends, whether DBS can raise rates together with US etc etc.
you are right to take analysts (or for that matter, anyone's opinion) with a pinch of salt. analysts' baseline, timeframe, holding period, is likely different from other people. i believe analysts don't have more information than the rest of the public. it is only because they do this day in day out, they see things probably differently. if you want an edge, you would probably need to read fund houses' reports. but then, fund managers reports usually do not have individual stock analysis.

hope this helps

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