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Anonymous

19 Sep 2021

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I don’t understand TSMC. Should I still invest?

Hi guys, when I’m looking through TSMC’s 10K, I don’t understand many technical terms and the different kind of processes they use in their manufacturing, should I still invest?

Because I know that TSMC have 53-54% of the WORLD’s market share(monopoly), they have good financials as well and strong demand for AI, AR/VR, HPC, AV u name it and requires better semiconductors to run them.. so I’m not sure whether these reasons are sufficient/ valid enough for me to invest.

Discussion (33)

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Hello! I personally feel that TSMC's growth is pretty much priced in. If you're looking to invest in the semi-conductor industry, you might want to look into semiconductor industries in emerging markets! China's semiconductor industry is an area i believe has potential growth for the coming decade.

In response to US-CHINA trade war, where tech companies found difficulties in purchasing semiconductors from US firms to manufacture its products, Chinese officials began accelerating plans to strengthen the country’s semiconductor industry. The “Made in China 2025” plan aims to produce 70% of all the semiconductors required by 2025.

Furthermore, the Chinese government is super supportive of achieving this goal! It established a national fund called the Circuit Industry Investment Fund, to help promote the growth of local semiconductor industry.

There is therefore a significant upside potential to China's semiconductor industry as it enters a high growth phase.

Cheers!

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No.

I have seen many, including gurus teaching people and having YouTube channels, going in, advocating people to go in, when they know nuts about what they are doing.

Things don't turn out well.

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I’m also still learning from all the senpais over here, thus we learn together. Soo take my advice with a pinch of salt .

But I personally dip my toes into TSMC when it dipped approx a month back . Entered at 108.
Intrinsic value if I rmb correctly is at 118.
For the long term (say about 5 years) , I believe anything below 118 is consider a good buy .

But sharing what Adam Khoo emphasis:
4 keys to investing
1. Knowing what to buy
2. Knowing when to buy
3. Knowing how many shares to buy
4. Knowing when to sell

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While several semi-con stocks have surged ridiculously and are in what I deem as super-duper over-valued zone, TSM stock has largely been limited by its capacity max out (or what is available as public knowledge). That said, several lesser-known public knowledge is that TSM is already having a few expansions in the pipeline. While a new wafer-fab build-out may takes a long lead time before being production, there are some expansions which is building on existing plants hence shorter lead time.

In view of potential markets' correction in not too distant future, and being a rather novice investor, IMHO, TSM stock is still pretty attractive long term investment when it hits a right price point (post-correction). ;)

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My general idea: how could we non-professionals validly predict the future stock development based o...

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