I analysed every HDB and condo transaction since 1990. Here is what surprised me, and the free tool I built from it.

Long post, sorry. I built a thing and I would rather show you the data than the product.

What I pulled together982,589 HDB resale transactions from data.gov.sg, 117,223 private transactions from URA, and URA's Master Plan land use layer — 113,212 zoned parcels plus the amendment layer that shows what has recently been rezoned.

Three things that changed how I look at listings

1. "Median price" can be built on almost nothing. 214 of 9,985 HDB blocks have not recorded a sale since 2013, and 2,011 — one in five — have had none at all in the past twelve months. Far more have individual flat types that have not traded in years. One block I looked at had exactly three 5-room sales ever — 2013, 2005 and 2002 — and a median off those tells you nothing about 2026.
2. What is next door is not in the listing, and sometimes not in the price. Over 5,500 parcels are zoned Business 2, which permits heavy industry and workers' dormitories. Separately, 1,085 parcels were rezoned in the current amendment — including land going from residential to utility, and from road to commercial. A recent rezoning is the one thing that is genuinely not yet in the asking price, in either direction.

3. Lease decay and CPF bite earlier than people expect.If the remaining lease does not cover the youngest buyer to age 95, CPF usage is pro-rated, and below 20 years remaining you cannot use CPF at all. That changes how much cash you need, not just what the flat "costs".

The tool propertygenie.vercel.app — free, no signup, no login, no lead capture. I am not an agent and I am not selling your details to one.

You put your shortlist in with the asking prices you were quoted, and it scores each one against its own market — an HDB flat against sales in its own block, a condo against resale in its own project — and tells you in plain words why. It is designed to produce rejection reasons, because that is the part a portal will never show you.

What it deliberately will not do: if the only comparable sales are more than three years old, it withholds the price read entirely instead of showing you a confident number built on a 2013 sale. I would rather it say "there is nothing recent to compare against" than be precisely wrong.

Fair warnings: the CPF pro-rating is my reading of the age-95 rule, not a figure CPF Board issued for your flat — confirm anything that would change your decision with HDB, CPF Board or IRAS. Data is current to July 2026 and refreshes fortnightly.

Would genuinely appreciate being told where it is wrong.