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Anonymous

05 Mar 2020

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Is it still safe to start investing despite the recession warning in 2020?

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To be honest, as many know: nobody can predict the market development short-term or longterm. The only thing we know: the stock markets indices over very long-term, particularly so the U.S. markets, developed extraordinarily compared to other asset classes.

There are warnings and media noise and 'market prophets' serving whole industries.

How many warnings do we hear every year. But, yes the market crases occasionally are there, somtimes very harsh ones. Over decades the stock markets generally function well so. Also consider alternatives: are they really safe? Is univested cash money really safe? difficult ...

Revised answer.
Read this blogpost too, I share the same sentiments as dividendwarrior:
http://dividendsrichwarrior.blogspot.com/2019/0...

Key principles to abide to:
1) do not invest with money for emergencies and specific near term commitments, eg hdb downpayment, wedding. This means you can look over a longer period and you should because news changes on a daily basis, they could say unemployment is low now, and reverse the stand next quarter. Changing your investment positions regularly based on so called news incurs a lot of buy / sell cost.

2) nothing wrong with taking small steps, and then adjust according to your comfort level as things move along. If you worry about the recession... What if the govts come down and settle, and revert the recession? No one has the crystal ball, but then good businesses will ready their investments and balance sheets and manage their way through the downturn. These are the ones you should be going for, because they manage themselves and you can "free-ride".

My forward thinking is I will split my annual savings three ways:
A) 1/3 to deploy for regular savings into good counters w at least 4% dividend yield
B) 1/3 for adhoc bargain purchases when there is promo to buy good blue chips or reits @ like 10-20% discount or dividend yield between 5-8%
C) 1/3 for the supposed recession where everything is like @ 50% clear warehouse sale which I have been waiting for 2 yrs by the way

There is nothing wrong with taking small steps to start the journey. At least you are moving along.
And very few can tell you they can really really get the best price at the right time. It doesn't have to be an all or nothing approach for investing to be honest.

Take for instance singtel, which was estimated at 5.5+% dividend yield for a while (17.5 cents dividend / price). In the last 52 weeks, I think lowest was abt 2.92. Under rsp, I bought lowest @ 2.98 and my average cost was 3.15. Its 3.4+ now after but what really changed? I dont really know LOL.

To manage risk, my current approach (using the 1/3 regular savings) is a double dca approach:

A default 500 monthly contribution to the best dividend yield stock on bcip until "the next review". 500 per month is not a lot, and I save the remainder that I could save in an investment reserve for occasional buys. The lower the price, the better the yield. When the yield is better than 5%, I increase the contribution / buys, if the yield drops, I lower the contribution or even stop contributing (if yield is less than 4%).

Hello! I’m Cassandra, the community manager for CoAssets Pte Ltd. Each investment opportunity/product will of course come with its own risk. How one defines ‘safe’ actually depends on each individual risk appetite.
Back to your question, there is never a good or bad time to invest, however, it is also dependent on the type of investment product you invest in. Some products may be susceptible to market volatility while others may not. For example, stocks are considered to be of higher risk and risks are escalated during such periods. While other investment products such as debt based crowdfunding, wine or art investments may not be affected by market volatility.

For example, CoAssets Pte Ltd provides investment opportunities in the film industry. The main factors determining the success of a film includes public taste, aesthetic merit, competition from other films released at the same time, quality of script, quality of the cast, and the quality of the direction etc. As everyone would know, there was a recession back in 2008. However, when you take a look at the global box office revenue, it has been been increasing each year from 2005 to 2018 as shown: https://www.statista.com/statistics/271856/glob... I would conclude that regardless of recessions or any market ups and downs, the film industry does not seem to be affected. People like you and I would still continue to go to cinemas or stream movies :)

Let me know your thoughts! Happy investing! :)

Sure, there are opportunities in good and bad times. It’s how you see the market. Down times are the best to activate your warchest and go on a shopping spree for sound and grounded companies.

I'd think that recession warnings are somewhat paradoxical, in the sense that the higher the awarene...

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