If you had invested $1000 in Tesla 8 years ago, it would be worth $20,000 today. What are some of the up-and-coming companies, and how do we spot them? - Seedly
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Anonymous

Asked on 14 Aug 2018

If you had invested $1000 in Tesla 8 years ago, it would be worth $20,000 today. What are some of the up-and-coming companies, and how do we spot them?

How do I spot potential in companies/industries?

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Leonard Tan
Leonard Tan
Level 6. Master
Answered on 19 Feb 2019

Statements as such have imbued logical fallacies in them, known as "connecting the dots backwards". Its very easy to look back and claim you saw it all coming, but its not often the case. There are more than 1000s of IPOs worldwide yearly- of which less than a 1% have made it big to FAANG levels. If u search online, there are plenty of articles going along "if I have invested in $100 in apple/google/amazon/facebook when it IPOed, it would be worth more than ~100x multiples of that today." The truth is if you indeed bought a stock at say $100, you would have likely sold it even before it shot up to 10 or 20x multiples. Even if you did buy stocks for the long term(10 year horizon), chances are, investors would not have picked a winner close to success like FAANG.

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Frankie Rappaport
Frankie Rappaport

05 Mar 2020

Super-competent answer. and when such companies develop well, we often think that the stock price is already to high...
James Yeo
James Yeo
Level 5. Genius
Answered on 15 Aug 2018

Honestly speaking, much opportunities often come only in China or U.S. where the market size is so huge - giving a long runway for them. In addition, investors there are more growth-oriented (Tesla and Amazon can keep making losses but still crack all time highs) while Sg-investors focus more on valuation and income.

Thus, go for stocks there. You can go for those famous brands but still not as famous as the FAANGs, like spotify, shopify, IPG Photonics Corporation, JD etc.

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Frankie Rappaport
Frankie Rappaport

05 Mar 2020

Yes, also my thinking: tech tilted U.S. & China. Would mostly do that by passive technology ETFs personally.
Frankie Rappaport
Frankie Rappaport
Top Contributor

Top Contributor (Jun)

Level 9. God of Wisdom
Answered on 05 Mar 2020

I believe we never can spot them. There is 'survivor bias'. So many listed companies default. As s start up they often are held in Venture Funds, even after listing competition is strong. And in the end every business rises and then declines (secularly).

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Pascal S
Pascal S, MBA Graduate at Singapore Management University
Level 6. Master
Answered on 28 Feb 2020

I had a crystal ball:

Meituan Dianping, recently.

Tencent, 8 years ago.

Missed out on Alibaba as I didn't have a proper brokerage account back then.

Joke aside.

As shared by another community member - US and China are the better markets to invest in + if the companies are operating there, predominantly.

For some alpha returns, frontier markets but you gotta have a long long time horizon and a strong belief in the founding/management team.

Tough call.

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Frankie Rappaport
Frankie Rappaport

05 Mar 2020

Tough call indeed
Karan Malhotra
Karan Malhotra
Level 5. Genius
Answered on 27 Feb 2020

So to be clear, you would have held on through this?

52-wk high - 968.99

52-wk low176.99

This is ONE year. If you would have held on to Tesla through 8 years of 100%+ standard deviation, you have a special type of risk tolerance that most investors don't. So these kinds of statements are not usually helpful as you can't predict the future.

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MT2020
MT2020
Level 7. Grand Master
Answered on 27 Feb 2020

Honestly, it is very hard to find this type of multi-baggers, you will really have to dig through the market to uncover these gems. You can start off by looking at the US and China market as both of them are global powerhouses and should serve as a starting point for you.

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