Asked on 06 Mar 2020
Markets nose-dived multiple times from an all-time high, and the outcome seems to be unprecedented. However, markets will recover in the long run so stay invested guys!
Here's an update to this, around 1.5 months after you asked this question!
I saw a recent data driven report that SUTD has put out and it definitely seems like the most legitimate, data-backed one of all the reports I have been reading.
You can find the full daily updated report here.
And yes, if you've heard about the saying it will get worse before it gets better, the above normal distribution curves looks like what is being observed.
Here are THREE Highlights from this report (which will directly concern the markets across the world):
Reach the peak on: 5th May 2020
End: 4th June 2020 (97% predicition)
Already at peak
End: 27th May 2020 (97% predicition)
End: 8th Dec 2020 (100% predicition)
Already at peak
End: 11th May 2020 (97% predicition)
*Disclaimer: Content from the SUTD Data website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.
27 Apr 2020
My guess is that it should be over before end of this year. Markets will recover in tandem with the news. It's a guess though, so if the virus mutates into something worse, then things will become very drawn out and we have to wait longer for recovery.
Whooa this question was asked on 06 March, its now 22 April.
so with new knowledge and scientists' studies, it seems like Covid19 can be a serious situation till 2021. some government like UK etc are preparing for it to last till 2021.
Some other organisations have noted the pandemic may last till 2022, i won't challenge them on this.
As for the stock market, it is generally forward looking, i believe it will account for vaccine or cure before the virus issue is settled.
not saying we should buy stocks now.... stocks forward looking may also means it can predict the economy is going to be in worse shape than ever, even when the covid19 problem is solved.
massive unemployments leads to massive non-consumption leads to massive closures leads to... massive unemployment.
so both ways for stock's forward looking mechanism.
Keep sane till 2022!
It's hard to tell, given that the level of public health readiness differs greatly by country.
Layer that on with the fact that supposedly recovered patients could lapse into a serious condition again, which means they could re-enter society and still be contagious while being asymptomatic.
That said, markets always go up in the long term!
Using SARS as a reference and with Covid-19 spreading more rapidly, maybe at least 6 months? So, I'm looking at June/July. But we are no god. We can only guess.
Market will definitely recover, not how, but when. Let's just wait patiently with our war chest.
I have a feeling that this sudden outbreak has left many industries in crisis. Major industries like aviation and tourism were put out of business within months, with this unfortunate blackswan event. F&B, brick and mortar stores etc. are also badly affected. It would take some time even after coronavirus subsides for consumer sentiments to improve their trust and increase their consumption of these G&S again.
As some of these industries actually take up a significant part of the country's GDP, the market performance will vastly be correlated to how fast these industries can pick up after their fall too.
IMO, it will be around 1-2 years before everything becomes normal again.
I think it takes 1 year plus for the covid to vanish and stock market to recover to the previous high (and break new highs, of course)
Based on kenneth's link of data-backed research,, around dec of 2020.
good good. just in time for xmas :)
I think the cb will end earlier. But the virus may take a year or more to be fully cleared. Businesses will pick up slowly again after cb, so stock markets may take a few months?
This is an crystal ball answer....rhe stock market is recovering now! Have u start invested in March?
Nobody knows. The more important question is, what will u do if COVID-19 continues and stock markets continue to trend down? What's your Plan B?
I feel that it could possibly last 6 months to 1 year, looking at the spread on the countries globally. It will probably start to stabalize towards the end of the year or early next year and hopefully the economy go back to normal once the virus dies down.
Nobody can tell this today,
my gut feeling is that it will last 3-4 months and than subside completely.
This will depend on factors like potential reservoir permanence (humans, animals), immunization status of the general population, mutations of the virus, permanence of mass travel.
What I do not understand is, why experts like A. Fauci presume that a virus tends to mutate to milder forms over time, this is maybe based on empirical data for other viruses.
Covid-19 will never end. It will just end up becoming another common flu variant.
Stock market? I'm gonna haphazard a guess of 12-24 months.
With governments all around the world committed to stopping the virus, I feel that the virus will start to decline during the second half of the year. The stock market should recover at the later part of the year.
Singapore will be the benchmark for this matter. For the most part, if Singapore cannot control the situation, then it is almost certain that this situation will persist for an extended period of time.
So far, the lack of collective effort from the people coupled with the failure to create a trustworthy detection tool definitely hit the nerves of the authority.
All things considered, I am hoping for this to stabilise by July this year.
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My personal view is that the market will rebound when there are signs countries are working together to combat the virus together, not when everyone is out to get each other like what we are seeing now. Only with coordination and cooperation between everyone then we can see improvement on this situation.
Hi Daniel, the virus seems to be no sign of slowing down, esp in the US, Europe region, though in Asia it seems to be slowing down, which is a positive sign. I feel it's going to last till May to July period, then hopefully markets will rebound after that. But yes, markets will always recover, will be staying invested :)