facebookHow do you make your assumptions and put a value to these assumption while making your DCF model? I can't seem to put a value on it that doesn't seem too arbitrary..? - Seedly

Anonymous

18 Apr 2019

βˆ™

General Investing

How do you make your assumptions and put a value to these assumption while making your DCF model? I can't seem to put a value on it that doesn't seem too arbitrary..?

Discussion (1)

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Assumptions wise, most importantly they should be reasonable and justifiable- following as much info and data you have gathered. If information is unavailable it is find to make rational projections based off current values, eg. assuming debt to equity ratio stays constant, leverage of ST debt constant.

Data Collection:

Speaking from personal experience, just do the best you can for what information you have(i.e whatever you dug up from their annual report, 10Qs and 10Ks for US companies).

If you have the time, read and stay updated with competitors filings, upstream(supplier) and downstream(customer) companies. This will help to form a good overarching image of the industry growth and costs especially- something which management might be willing to hide, and might not be absorbed fully by investors yet.

Also, Dont be afraid to email investor relations! I recently just emailed one expecting no reply(because it was a Sunday), but I was shocked to see a response from a finance executive within the hour. But don't expect them to be filing in your DCF model though! Even professional analysts tend to do that during earnings call- I think Mgt team can get really repulsive in such cases and certainly investor relations would feel the same way.

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