Asked 4w ago
There seem to be some early signs based on what we see in the first week in China?
I read a report recently about having alot of pent up frustration, cabin fever, and most importantly pent-up wallets waiting to unload into the economy once the lockdown is eased.
If you look at history as an indicator of such a 'rebound' here's an example of the Roaring 20s:
Consumerism in China (early signs of rebounds?)
In China, the day the luxury brand Hermès opened its store in Guangzhou after lockdown, it saw US$2.7million in sales.
This was the largest single-day shopping a single boutique in China has ever seen.
Several malls and restaurants saw queues with some actually seeing a waitlist of three to four hours.
The reason behind this “revenge spending” is nothing more than pent up demand from the lockdown and an interesting phenomenon called shibal biyong.
Shibal biyong is a Korean expression popular among millennials. It means impulse purchases such as a US$20 coffee or an expensive dress after a particularly difficult day at work or at home. These purchases are non-essential but make people feel better about a bad experience in their lives.
Much YOLO behaviour?
This desire to buy things and experiences would also be especially enhanced after the pandemic when people realise that their future can be uncertain.
It may take some time for people to actually start spending straight after the pandemic depending on the economic condition.
But I believe that when the economy starts recovering there will be a shift in the mindset of people towards living an uninhibited life, similar to the Roaring ’20s where everyone was seen buying new cars, appliances and stylish clothing for the first time in history.
This decade saw a total 300 per cent increase in the number of cars on the roads and the first million-dollar advertising campaign.
China's vehicle market shows robust April growth
This closely corresponds to what we are seeing in China presently with the growth in car sales.
Auto Sales rebound after 21 months
Bur on a more macro level, Chinese domestic macro-economy recovery still needs time, and a shutdown of overseas factories might well affect domestic auto parts supply.
I think on the whole, nope. What with job losses and underworking amidst this economic downturn, many cautious Singaporeans will adopt a wait-and-see-first attitude before indulging themselves in retail therapy.
I do think that certain sectors will remain more recession-proof than others. Take the tuition industry for instance. Singaporeans have always remained invested in their children's education; 1 month of HBL and another month of holidays will make some reach into their pockets and augment their childen's learning with online classes.
By surge, I am assuming it means a sudden huge increase in volume and sales.
I don't think so until there appears to be major breakthroughs in the coronavirus situation that is a clear indication that we are moving out of this mess. The lower numbers these days may be upended once the lockdown eases, as people start to move out of their homes. Hence, the effect of the ease is still uncertain.
However, if there appears to be major improvements in the daily cases despite easing of measures plus progress in vaccine creation, then consumers' sentiments will largely improve too!
I think there still may be a surge, though it'll be a short one, following the easing of lockdown measures. However, recovery to pre-virus conditions will take up to 1-2 years IMO.
Revenge spending yes because being lockdown unable to travel , dine in restaurants and drink bbt.
However , that will be just short term. If economy continues to go bad, unemployment rate continue to rise , no income how to spend ? Only possible for the short term basis.
The ultimate supply and demand theory will always come back in and reflect true economy state.
Depends on sector ba. As you can see from Macdonald's opening, the surge is crazy. I think for Singaporeans, anything related to food and beverages (and alcohol) will definitely surge.
I believe the next craze is bubble tea. Then clubs and bars.
As for clothings and appliances I think not so much.