facebookWill USD really depreciate in your opinion? - Seedly

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Cuthbert Yeo

12 Apr 2021

SeedlyTV

Will USD really depreciate in your opinion?

What are efficient/best ways to hedge against it?

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Discussion (1)

What are your thoughts?

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In my opinion, I think the USD will depreciate for several reasons:

Current Monetary Policy

  • Though inflation fears might be over-stated, we can look to various indicators such as commodities to see that inflation has already set in (though others argue that it is a supply chain issue where supply is low and demand is high). The amount of money that has been "printed" into the money supply is reaching a staggering rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL). This continuous reliance on "money printing" might not be ideal as US continues to keep its position as the world's currency.

Lack of Positive Catalysts for the US vs China

  • The US is roughing it out with China right now but if we were to look at the positive catalysts that are in store for the US, there aren't too many that lay around. However, if we look to China through a pragmatic lens, they are in the midst of rolling out an initiative that will aim to bring the heart of global trade to its land (one belt one road initiative) and is also creating a digital currency that might be able to lead to the proliferation of the Chinese Yuan. Plus, China is posed to takeover US as the largest economy in the world in the next decade.

Uncertainty ahead for the US

  • The US' future is riddled with uncertainty and COVID-19 has also accelerated the need for US to address these problems. Ranging from education reform to governance to the ever-growing political divide to racial injustice, the US will need to prove now more than ever that it can solve its domestic issues before it can continue to lead the world.

  • For example, unlike countries that managed to flatten the curve easily, the US' education system has lagged behind with millions of student being unable to receive an adequate education (https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/public-and-...). This lag has been projected to lead up to a seven seven-month delay in a student's education (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/us/coronavir...). This hiccup in education might seem like a small issue but can be detrimental to a country that takes pride in its innovations and problem solving (think about the TFP in your production model in economics).

However, I might be completely wrong and everyone should remember that Buffett's Berkshire annual report this year could be summed up as "don't bet against America". I am no wizard of Omaha but I hope that I put up a fair argument when it comes to backing up my statement.

So does this make a case for a country like China to have their digital currency reign supreme? Or does this make a case for select cryptocurrencies or even commodities to be a good store of value?

I am not 100% sure but I think I am leaning to yes for both answers. (this is coming from a crypto sceptic)

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