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Is it wise to buy it now? What are your predictions on grab's future share price? Are you currently holding it?
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Brendan Aw
15 Dec 2021
Procurement Manager at Taiwan Leolight Lighting Co., Ltd.
Overvalued.
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Will avoid it for now. I emailed their investor IR with some questions regarding their sec filing and it has been 2 weeks yet there is no reply from them.
If a company doesn't even bother to reply to question about their company will they even be concern about shareholders interest?
The structure of the deal is also weird. 97% of the shares will be unlock in 6 months similar to other spac yet Anthony with 3%? shares has a voting power of over 60%? If I rmb correct..
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Its only worth what is net equity value is. This is because the business has been negative EBITDA and cashflow burning. Of course one should have valued it below net equity value, but I have abscribed some value to its brand name, hence the conclusion that market cap = net equity value
In terms of its business outlook in singapore, it isnt good. Stats from LTA shows ride hailing rides has plateaued and number of private hire drivers is decreasing. It has been out manuevered by shopee in the South east asia digital wallet segment where Shopee GMV has outgrown them, despite starting later.
Based on this, the market cap to invest in it is about USD $8 billion (equating to $2 per share). Do note, Grab has a large number of unexercised share options granted to employees which will further dilute. So this is about the value which is fair value, if you want a reasonable returns, factor in a discount of 20%, equating to $1.60 per share
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It will remain low until it's truly profitable....
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Nope. I can't see how they can further scale their core businesses (beside leveraging on technology) and their way of generating revenues seems too volatile for me.