First and foremost, we have to clarify the term "bull" and "bear". For "bull", i think its quite clear and self explanatory but the technicality comes when defining "bear" or "bearish". Investopedia defines it as "a condition in which securities prices fall 20 percent or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment". The most recent bear market happened on 24th Dec, where the S&P500 droppd below 20% of its 52-week high. Subsequently, the market rallied to 2,800 as of 4th March 2019, slightly off the 2018 High of 2930.
With data like this, there is no sound basis/legitimate narrative that the market is going to crash anytime soon. The fact that many people have been going on and on about how "the market is going to crash" is right - prior to the gradual negotiations put in place to negotiate the end of the trade war between US and China. In short, 2018 was a year filled with volatility, heightening uncertainty and fear that investors might have.
However, if one takes a look at leading economic indicators to ascertain the overall health of the economy, while global projected GDP Growth Rates have been cut by IMF, economies in certain countries remain robust, even showing signs of improving. For example, in the US, weekly jobless claims - one of the indicators of a recession, dropped to near 49 year lows; and the consumer confidence index rose. Furthermore, US recorded strong GDP Growth in 2018.
With US at the centrepiece of the global economy, coupled with the fact that the US economy is doing well. Is a crash really due soon? Or is it really a case of how we shouldn't listen to all these "noise" and perhaps it would be prudent to do our own research to make more informed judgements and decisions.
Hope that helps!
First and foremost, we have to clarify the term "bull" and "bear". For "bull", i think its quite clear and self explanatory but the technicality comes when defining "bear" or "bearish". Investopedia defines it as "a condition in which securities prices fall 20 percent or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment". The most recent bear market happened on 24th Dec, where the S&P500 droppd below 20% of its 52-week high. Subsequently, the market rallied to 2,800 as of 4th March 2019, slightly off the 2018 High of 2930.
With data like this, there is no sound basis/legitimate narrative that the market is going to crash anytime soon. The fact that many people have been going on and on about how "the market is going to crash" is right - prior to the gradual negotiations put in place to negotiate the end of the trade war between US and China. In short, 2018 was a year filled with volatility, heightening uncertainty and fear that investors might have.
However, if one takes a look at leading economic indicators to ascertain the overall health of the economy, while global projected GDP Growth Rates have been cut by IMF, economies in certain countries remain robust, even showing signs of improving. For example, in the US, weekly jobless claims - one of the indicators of a recession, dropped to near 49 year lows; and the consumer confidence index rose. Furthermore, US recorded strong GDP Growth in 2018.
With US at the centrepiece of the global economy, coupled with the fact that the US economy is doing well. Is a crash really due soon? Or is it really a case of how we shouldn't listen to all these "noise" and perhaps it would be prudent to do our own research to make more informed judgements and decisions.
Hope that helps!