I have a feeling that this sudden outbreak has left many industries in crisis. Major industries like aviation and tourism were put out of business within months, with this unfortunate blackswan event. F&B, brick and mortar stores etc. are also badly affected. It would take some time even after coronavirus subsides for consumer sentiments to improve their trust and increase their consumption of these G&S again.
As some of these industries actually take up a significant part of the country's GDP, the market performance will vastly be correlated to how fast these industries can pick up after their fall too.
IMO, it will be around 1-2 years before everything becomes normal again.
01 May 2020
Calculator at The Internet
I think it takes 1 year plus for the covid to vanish and stock market to recover to the previous high (and break new highs, of course)
Based on kenneth's link of data-backed research,, around dec of 2020.
good good. just in time for xmas :)
I would think it would take another 3 to 4 months before the Corvid19 infection cases flatten.
27 Apr 2020
Co-founder at Seedly
Here's an update to this, around 1.5 months after you asked this question!
I saw a recent data driven report that SUTD has put out and it definitely seems like the most legitimate, data-backed one of all the reports I have been reading.
You can find the full daily updated report here.
And yes, if you've heard about the saying it will get worse before it gets better, the above normal distribution curves looks like what is being observed.
Here are THREE Highlights from this report (which will directly concern the markets across the world):
Reach the peak on: 5th May 2020
End: 4th June 2020 (97% predicition)
Already at peak
End: 27th May 2020 (97% predicition)
End: 8th Dec 2020 (100% predicition)
Already at peak
End: 11th May 2020 (97% predicition)
*Disclaimer: Content from the SUTD Data website is STRICTLY ONLY for educational and research purposes and may contain errors. The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries. Predictions are uncertain by nature. Readers must take any predictions with caution. Overly optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.
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I think the cb will end earlier. But the virus may take a year or more to be fully cleared. Business...
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