Commodities: What are your thoughts about holding NANR for the long term? Was thinking 5% of portfolio.

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I would say that there are pros and cons of holding commodity-producing companies v.s. direct commodities:

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Pros

• Good decisions - if management of these companies can find ways to improve the process / business (make it more efficient or cost-effective) to produce these commodities, share prices might move higher than direct commodities.

Cons

• Bad decisions / scandals - If you recall the BP incident where they spilled oil back in 2010, it's share price dropped by 50+% during the 3 months. I doubt the direct oil price fell by that much.
• You also have so many other costs like labour etc. which once rise, would negatively impact the stock price too.

So from the above points, you can clearly see the management of the company is an important factor in either propelling the share price higher than the price of commodities or it could act against it, notwithstanding the commodity-trading price itself.

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Direct commodity - Macro effect

Commodity producing company - Macro & Micro effect