Will Trump's tariffs affect Singapore's property market?

On 9 April 2025, the United States announced a 10% blanket tariff on imports from countries — including Singapore — that haven’t retaliated against earlier US trade actions. There’s also a 90-day pause on further tariff escalation, set to end on 8 July 2025.

The introduction of these new tariffs and its impact on trade and the global economy could influence investor confidence, household sentiment, and ultimately, the property market here in Singapore. We’ve broken down how this could happen through 3 potential scenarios: if tariffs hold steady, escalate, or shift toward specific industries.

• Scenario 1: Baseline US Tariffs Remain at 10%
• Scenario 2: US Tariffs Escalate After 90 Days
• Scenario 3: Industry-Specific Tariffs Are Introduced
• What's Happening in Global Markets Right Now?
• How This Affects the Fed and Global Interest Rates
• What This Means for Singapore: Impact on SORA

• Should You Buy, Sell or Hold?

Scenario 1: Baseline US Tariffs Remain at 10%

If the 10% tariff holds steady through the current 90-day pause, the direct economic impact on Singapore is expected to be relatively contained.

Economic context

• The Singapore Dollar (SGD) has strengthened against the US Dollar, softening the blow for exporters.
• Singapore’s export exposure to the US is limited relative to other major trading partners.
• The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has already eased monetary policy, helping preserve our competitiveness.

However, macroeconomic uncertainty may influence buyer sentiment in high-value transactions. Home purchases — especially those involving private condominiums — are sensitive to broader financial confidence.

Property market implications

Short-term:

• Private resale activity might slow down slightly, especially for higher-value transactions, as some buyers turn cautious.
• HDB resale demand will likely stay firm, although you may see longer decision cycles as families wait for more economic clarity.

Long-term:

• Singapore’s neutral positioning could attract multinational investments, especially if global supply chains shift.
• This could support demand for homes in the city fringe and prime areas, where foreign professionals tend to live.

While short-term sentiment may be affected by the broader narrative surrounding Trump tariffs, the underlying economic resilience of Singapore suggests that the housing market is likely to remain fundamentally sound in this scenario.

Scenario 1 Summary:__ If tariffs stay as they are, the property market might see a brief slowdown in pricier homes — but Singapore’s stability should keep things steady overall.

Scenario 2: US Tariffs Escalate After 90 Days

If the 90-day pause ends without resolution and the United States tariffs are escalated — whether by raising rates further or extending them to major trading partners such as China — the global economy could face a significant downturn.

Economic context

• An escalation of US tariffs may trigger retaliatory measures, dampening global trade flows.
• Singapore, as a highly trade-reliant economy, could be adversely affected, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, electronics, and finance.
• The cumulative impact could lead to a broader global slowdown, and in a worst-case scenario, a recession.

Property market implications

Short-term:

• The market may experience a pullback in buyer activity across both HDB and private segments.
• Sentiment-driven demand may weaken, especially among investors and higher-income buyers.
• Singapore could see housing prices come down for the first time since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, as part of a wider retreat across capital markets.

Wider context:

• Downward pressure would not be limited to real estate — equities, bonds, and other asset classes could also be affected as risk aversion rises and liquidity tightens.
• While this scenario is less likely given the potential global fallout, it remains a critical downside risk to monitor.

If enacted, a reversal or escalation of the current Trump tariffs would introduce substantial macroeconomic headwinds, with direct consequences for Singapore’s open economy and asset markets.

Scenario 2 Summary:__ If tariffs escalate, Singapore’s housing market could see price drops and slower demand — especially in the private sector.

Scenario 3: Industry-Specific Tariffs Are Introduced

If the United States transitions from blanket tariffs to industry-specific measures, the economic impact may be more measured and strategically focused. Under this scenario, tariffs would apply selectively to high-value sectors — such as advanced manufacturing or technology — rather than by country.

Economic context

The policy focus may include reshoring initiatives, such as prioritising US companies for government contracts and offering tax incentives to domestically based firms.

This approach could encourage production of strategic goods within the US while limiting broader trade disruption.

Property market implications

Short-term:

• Minimal impact on Singapore’s property market, as targeted tariffs are unlikely to generate immediate volatility or weaken demand.
• Buyer and investor sentiment would likely remain stable in the absence of blanket trade restrictions.

Long-term:

• If sectoral tariffs lead to a stronger and more resilient US economy, global trade flows could stabilise.
• As a key node in regional and global supply chains, Singapore would likely benefit from increased investment confidence, business activity, and trade realignment.
• This would have a positive knock-on effect on the property market, especially in commercial real estate and high-demand residential segments.

By focusing on strategic industries rather than broad protectionist measures, this form of US tariff policy may allow for continued global economic growth — supporting housing demand and price stability in Singapore over the long run.

Scenario 3 Summary:__ Targeted tariffs are the least disruptive. Singapore could even benefit as global businesses adapt and reinvest in the region.

What’s Happening in Global Markets Right Now?

Beyond trade flows, the effects of the United States tariffs are being felt in global capital markets. As of the latest trading week, US equity markets...

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