Portfolio Review (September 2022)

Review of my Portfolio (30/09/2022)

• Total unrealised loss = -11.5%

• YTD portfolio down = - 32.4%

Added in September

Growth Portfolio: XLC, XLK, QQQM

Dividend Portfolio: Allianz income & Growth, BST

Portfolio Weightage

• Sea of red....😢

Dividend Received

YTD dividend received = SGD $5 403.91

Opinons

• On May, i done a market review.
• Anticipating the market, help to device a plan before the actual thing happen, not so much of timing the market.
• I dont use over-complicated analysis to anticipate the market movement, unlike many expert, as i am neither an economist nor a historian. I am an investor.
• As an investor, my job is to anticipate the most probable outcomes and have a plan no matter what situation.

• Being an investor just ignore the News.

• YTD performance of difference sectors had been steadily declined. The Energy sector bubble had also been deflating. Money had been flowing out.

• So far, there is not much flow of money into other sectors, maybe investors are scared? Selling out and holding cash?🤔 Maybe that is why there is a P/E contraction.....

• Currently, communication sector, $XLC, (Heavy on Google & Meta), among the Tech, remain the most beaten down when compared to $XLK (Heavy on Appl & Msft) and $XLY (Heavy on Amzn & Tsla).

• As mention, previously, there is a very strong resistance at $430 & the S&P500 is still unable to break through. The decline of S&P500 is still within my expectation.

• Technically, i think we are near the bottom
• As long term trend tend to find support & rebound at the 50MA

Data as in 28 September 2022

• What is the worst possible outcome?

Despite aggressive rising the interest rate, the S&P500 are able to hold its earnings @ 200 range, which is good sign. October will be the earnings seasons, if it is still able to hold at this range then i think we are near bottom.

• In my opinon, P/E contraction is better than earnings contraction. As the underlying fundamental are still intact.

• Currently the PE is 18.41, while historical PE is 16. Current S&P500 = 18.41 X 203.88 = 3753. Assume it is able to hold its earning then based on historical data, S&P500= 16 X 203.88 = 3262. Which is another 13% drop from now (28/09). Which is around $315 for SPY, slightly below the long term 50 MA.

Singapore Reits

• It seem even the stable sg reits cannot escape US FED.
• A 8%+ drop over a few days is something i never encounter before....😱
• The increase in interest rate will definitely affect the earnings of reits, so expect lower dividend for the following few months.
• But will interest rate hike last forever? ? I dont think so.
• Since the prices have fallen so much, some of the reits now have a dividend yield more than 10%. This may be also an opportunity.
• But do your own due diligence, ensure the underlying reits fundamental remain strong before buying the dip.

Data as in 28 September 2022

Conclusions

• I am anticipating the market to bottom when $SPY around $350 to $315.
• Should i go all in? NO. Still follow the rule " Invest the money you don't need". Because (1) i may be wrong, (2) i dont know how long will the recession will last.
• If the earnings, remain constant over long period of time we may go into long period of stagnation.
• But if October earnings exceed expectation, the market may have a change in trend, at least short term.

• So many things to buy yet so little money.😢

Previous Review

https://seedly.sg/opinions/portfolio-review-august-2022/