Portfolio Review (October 2025)

Review of my Portfolio (31/10/2025)

Total unrealized profit: + 46.1 %

YTD performance: + 21.1 %

Benchmark S&P500 YTD: + 16.56 %

Added in October

Goal 1: ( $ 81,974.55 / $ 80,464) ⚔️

Growth Portfolio: META, SMH

Dividend Portfolio: 500, 588, AJBU, J69U, T82U, Allspring Global Equity Enhanced Income, United Global Durable Equities

Portfolio Weightage

Dividend Recieved

Goal 2: ($14,441.15 / $ 17,117) ❤️

Dividend recieved in October = $ 593.08

US Market

• The U.S. bull market continues, but risks have also risen.
• In fact, it becomes increasingly challenging to invest prudently when markets keep moving higher.

• My focus therefore shift toward protecting the downside and managing risk carefully.

• The U.S. market’s strong rally appears extended, and I am anticipating a 10–13% pullback in the index ($SPY approximately $613 to $594).
• Valuations have become stretched.
• Given the elevated risk-reward profile, I will refrain from adding to index positions such as QQQ.

Sector

• Across the three key sectors — Communication Services (XLC), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), and Technology (XLK) — valuations remain elevated, with no apparent bargains or divergences.
• The Healthcare sector (XLV) also appears unattractive at current levels, particularly above $140.

Stocks to Watch In November

• Despite exceeding expectations in both revenue and earning, META share price still declined by over 10%, reflecting investor concerns over rising expenses and increased capital spending.
• In my opinon, the sharp decline is an overreaction, as the company's underlying buisness fundamentals remain unchanged.

The One time Tax Bill

• META $15.9 billion tax charge is mostly a non-cash accounting adjustment, not a real outflow of money. It means future profit will face slightly higher taxes, reducing cashflow gradually over the coming years.
• So this does not hurt META financial strength or ability to invest, buy back shares or pay for project.

Higher Capital Expenditure

• META also announced increase spending into AI infrastructure especially data centres and custom AI chip.
• We should not be overly concerned. We have seen this before, when Mark Zuckerberg shifted focus to the Metaverse, the share price initially plunged, but once META refocused on profitability and efficiency the share price rebounded strongly.

• The current increase in CapEx may again be a short term setback for long term opportunity.

Valuation Based on 5 year DCF model

Bear Case: $ 280

Normal Case: $ 480

Bull Case: $ 770

• META is not a bargain at around $648, as it appears fairly valued to slightly expensive.
• However, compared to the broader market — which is trading at elevated valuations — META remains relatively attractive.
• I plan to continue adding small positions below $700, and if the stock pulls back to around $550, I will consider making a larger purchase.