Portfolio Review (March 2025)

Review of my Portfolio (31/03/2025)

Total unrealized profit: + 15.1 %

YTD performance: - 9.8 %

Added in March

Goal 1: ( $ 27,182.33 / $ 80,464) ⚔️

Growth Portfolio: QQQM, XLK, SMH, GOOGL

Dividend Portfolio: O39, 558, OV8, J69U, United Global Durable Equities

Portfolio Weightage

Dividend Recieved

Goal 2: ($ 2,525.31 / $ 17,117) ❤️

Dividend recieved in March = $ 1,162.88

US Market Review (Opinons)

• It seems that tariff causes a fear of a recession and uncertainty.
• So far the market have fallen ~10% from All Time High, which is a healthy correction, is actually no big deal.
• The market sentiment are fully reflected in the stock price; it is not necessary to follow the news and become an economist.
• As an investor, we just need to anticipate how far will the price going to fall further and at what price are we going to buy.

Fundamental

• Current, S&P500 are fairly valued as the earning line and the S&P500 price matches.
• But we can observe the earnings line have significantly slowdown.
• The current PE is about ~28.39, indicate an earning yield of 3.52%.

Technical

• Worst case: A technical recession, 20% from ATH, $613.23 x 80% = $490.58. (~13.5%).
• Based on history, it will touches to 50 SMA of the monthly chart if there is a recession ($462), which is another 18.5%.
• Best case: Based on the weekly chart, S&P500 have hit its first support at $551 - $554. This will be my first tranch to add to the ETF.

Cyclical Market

• Market are cyclical, every few month the S&P500 sectors will rotate.
• During this period, the technology, consumer cyclical and communications sectors are sold down.
• These are the sectors that are heavily contributed to S&P500 returns. These sectors consist of the Magnificent 7.
• I will be adding to more to Technology Sector, XLK, based on the sector rotation strategy.

Intrisic Value for Magnificent 7

I am currently looking to add more to Googl and AMZN based on valuation.

APPL- $ 207 (Overvalued to Fair value)

MSFT - $ 350 (Overvalued to Fair value)

AMZN - $ 269 (Undervalued, 30% upside)

GOOGL - $ 220 (Undervalued, 30% upside)

META - $ 263 (Overvalued)

NVDA- $109 (Fair value)

TSLA- $ 170 (Overvalued)

Previous Review

https://seedly.sg/opinions/portfolio-review-february-2025/