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OPINIONS
Rate hikes, macro driven bear market, DCA strategies and more. Find out what I did this month for my PA.
Lin Yun Heng
Edited 02 Oct 2022
Senior Analyst at Delphi
Wake me up when September ends. September is also the month which we saw a further 75bps rate hike from the Fed, and of course, all time high figures in various inflation figures across the globe and one of the strongest period the USD has ever been.
What does this all translate to? It’s bad news for asset rich, cash poor investors, and mostly good news if you have been sitting on the sidelines with cash, although take note inflation is a silent killer, so those cash sitting in your bank or under your bed is slowly losing value over time too.
Will we reach a soft landing? Honestly no one knows. How is macro doing? Mostly bad. But the silver lining here is that crypto saw a local bottom and has yet to trend lower as most marginal sellers have already been exhausted. Does that mean the bottom is in? Again, no idea. But I have been actively dollar-cost averaging on high conviction bets within my portfolio, because all the uncertainties I highlighted above also somehow represent one of the best time to accumulate assets at a cheaper valuation compared to a few years ago.
As of 1 Oct 22
What have I done this month? Mostly just dollar-cost averaging into ETHand FOLD. While macro is wreaking havoc on our portfolios, I have been slowly accumulating every time I see a slight dip in price. I won’t bother trying to time the bottom because that’s simply foolish, and I am more interested in focusing on what I believe in and concentrate my bets on it.
And so, I was actively buying FOLD on Ethereum and in turn staking it for xFOLD, patiently waiting for the Sushiguard router to go live and for staking rewards to kick off.
MEV value accrual is something that is yet to be explored on Ethereum, simply because MEV profits were going directly to miners before the Merge, and now that the miners are gone, MEV profits can become democratised and shared among even retail investors like myself.
With the upcoming Ethereum upgrade of Proposer-Builder Separation (PBS), it is going to open up a new, but important role called the block builder into the Ethereum ecosystem. What it essentially means is this: It will unlock the untapped potential of MEV profits by building the highest value block, which clearly has a centralising effect (power law).
Right now, key block builders in the space include Flashbots, Manifold, BloXRoute, Blocknative and Eden Network. And guess what who seems to be building the highest value blocks on Ethereum? You guessed it right, its Manifold (FOLD).
Manifold core product is called SecureRPC, which is an endpoint that aggregates between Flashbots Protect RPC, Eden Network, and more, which essentially translates into enhanced privacy, malicious MEV protection and priority blocks access when you transact in DeFi. How does this benefit translate to real world usage?
Its simple. Things like NFT minting, swapping tokens on Uniswap, or performing a flashloan can all be protected against malicious attacks or transaction priority because instead of your transactions going to the public mempool, your transactions are being sent to private mempools that offers a ton of benefit mentioned above for free.
If you want to understand more about Manifold Finance, I refer you to this resource here.
As for live projects that I’m looking closely at, it can be summed up below:
And upcoming projects such as:
I won’t elaborate on them as that would make this into a 5000 words update, but I have spoken to some of the project team on these projects and I find their vision and strategies to be extremely thoughtful and sharp, so these are definitely projects which I will monitor extremely closely as they develop.
As of 1 Oct 22
I started DCA-ing into Syfe Custom ETF portfolio last month, and here are the results after 1 month: -6.52% TW return…
It sucks to see it turn negative, but again, I am planning to just add $1000 SGD a month to it and take a multi-year horizon on them, not much changes made to the portfolio composition, but I will most likely make slight adjustments along the way depending on how things play out. The core positions within the portfolio will remain to be QQQ (Nasdaq-100 Index) and CSPX (S&P 500 Index).
I added in fresh funds on 30 September so those are not yet invested yet, but it will automatically buy up my portfolio composition based on how I weighted it out, so you will see more of that in next month’s update.
Stocks as a whole are beaten down because of macro factors, just the same as crypto. I feel comfortable DCA-ing from here on out after a significant drawdown in the stock market, because even if the market tanks another 20%-30%, I will feel indifferent. I actually want the market to remain sideways for as long as possible so I can keep DCA-ing and accumulating along the way.
I am not rushing to retire, so it doesn’t matter to me, at least with this portion of my portfolio. All I know is 1 thing: Investing in a broad-based index fund strategy is just a matter of time. Just let compound interest do its thing and the magic only happens the more time you give it. And not to disrupt it unnecessarily.
As we head into the final quarter of the year, we might be able to see more direction from the Fed with regards to inflation. Is the worst behind us? Maybe. Maybe not. All I know is, we are going to be navigating through a rather tough market for the foreseeable future, and don’t expect things to get easy soon. The past decade has been relatively easy due to QE and low interest rates, as the S&P 500 has only been up only ever since 2008. The next market cycle is going to be a tough one for sure, and that is something I have been mentally preparing myself for, and any weak-minded or low conviction investor can easily be shaken out from this market condition very easily, and that is okay.
I have seen many friends and colleagues going on the sidelines due to the uncertainties of the market, and this phenomenon is perfectly fine. The market is not meant for everyone and every individual investor has a unique personality that will shape how they shape their portfolios. My investing philosophy has always been inspired by a mix of the likes of Peter Lynch, Philip Fisher and Warren Buffett, and the occasional degenerate trading ape mode.
I for one, will always remain invested in the markets no matter the market condition. The key here is consistency, and not deviating from who you are as an investor. It is important to understand the differences between a trader and an investor, because mixing up the two, will often lead to less than desired returns.
My crypto portfolio will remain an active portion of my portfolio, while Syfe ETF portfolio will be a passive, zero effort portion of my portfolio. Together, I hope it will complement my investing strategy and help me remain invested no matter rain or shine. How are you crafting your personal portfolio? I’m keen to know too, feel free to drop them in the comments!
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Do your due diligence on Bitcoin in my post here where I debunk some of the myths regarding Bitcoin.
I did a bite-sized article on Ethereum for you to get a crash-course on what the buzz word is all about here.
Or do you want to learn more about DeFi in a simple to understand manner? Click here to learn more
Learn more about how you can put a “fair value” on crypto such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and more here
FTX Exchange: Create a FTX account here and trade the lowest fee and best UI/UX crypto exchange!
GMX Referral: Enjoy a 5% discount off trading fees when you use my referral code and trade on GMX.
Disclaimer:
The content here is for informational purposes only and should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice. It does NOT constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase any investment or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. In fact, the content is not directed to any investor or potential investor and may not be used to evaluate or make any investment.
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ABOUT ME
Lin Yun Heng
Edited 02 Oct 2022
Senior Analyst at Delphi
Crypto Educator
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