BS25124F 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/12/02/bs25124f-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25148F is 1.40%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.08% and standard deviation of 0.06%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25124F would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.40% – 0.08% = 1.32%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.32% – 0.06% = 1.26%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.32% + 0.06% = 1.38%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 1.35%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.60% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25124F would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.35%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.35% – 0.60% = 0.75%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.35% + 0.60% = 1.95%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.32%, ranging from 1.26% to 1.38%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.35%, ranging from 0.75% to 1.95%

This round MAS Bill ML25148F cut-off yield raised 1 basis point to 1.40% from ML25146A 1.39%, and the supply of the coming T-Bill BS25124F continued to stay the same at $8 billion dollars.

With the MAS Bill ML25148F raising 1 basis point, I’m going to project that the cut-off yield for BS25124F would also raise by 1 basis point from the last T-Bill BS25123E cut-off yield at 1.39%. Therefore my projected yield for BS25124F would be 1.40%.