BS25123E 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/11/18/bs25123e-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25146A is 1.39%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.08% and standard deviation of 0.06%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25123E would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.39% – 0.08% = 1.31%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.31% – 0.06% = 1.25%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.31% + 0.06% = 1.37%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 1.42%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.60% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25123E would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.42%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.42% – 0.60% = 0.82%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.42% + 0.60% = 2.02%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.31%, ranging from 1.25% to 1.37%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.42%, ranging from 0.82% to 2.02%

This round MAS Bill NL25146A cut-off yield stayed the same as ML25144N 1.39%, and the supply of the coming T-Bill BS25123E also stayed the same at $8 billion dollars.

Since there is no change in both factors, I'm going to project that the cut-off yield for BS25123E would also stay flat as last T-Bill BS25122A cut-off yield at 1.37%.