BS25121V 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/10/22/bs25121v-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25142X is 1.42%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.09% and standard deviation of 0.06%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25121V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.42% – 0.09% = 1.33%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.33% – 0.06% = 1.27%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.33% + 0.06% = 1.39%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 1.51%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.58% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25121V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.51%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.51% – 0.58% = 0.93%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.51% + 0.58% = 2.09%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.33%, ranging from 1.27% to 1.39%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.51%, ranging from 0.93% to 2.09%

This round MAS Bill dropped 6 basis points from ML25140H 1.48% to ML25142X 1.42%, and the supply of the coming T-Bill BS25121V increased to $7.9 billion dollars. Together they assert downwards pressure to the cut-off yield.

My projected cut-off yield for BS25121V would follow the Yield Premium Method, i.e. 1.33%.