BS25120N 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/10/07/bs25120n-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25140H is 1.48%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.09% and standard deviation of 0.06%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25120N would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.48% – 0.09% = 1.39%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.39% – 0.06% = 1.33%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.39% + 0.06% = 1.45%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 1.62%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.57% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25120N would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.62%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.62% – 0.57% = 1.05%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.62% + 0.57% = 2.19%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.39%, ranging from 1.33% to 1.45%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.62%, ranging from 1.05% to 2.19%

This round MAS Bill raised 6 basis points from ML25138N 1.42% to ML25140H 1.48%, and the supply of the coming T-Bill BS25120N increased to $7.8 billion dollars.

My projected cut-off yield for BS25120N would follow the Yield Premium Method, i.e. 1.39%.