BS25118F 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/09/09/bs25118f-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25136X is 1.44%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.10% and standard deviation of 0.06%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25118F would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.44% – 0.10% = 1.34%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.34% – 0.06% = 1.28%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.34% + 0.06% = 1.40%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 1.82%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.52% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25118F would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.82%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.82% – 0.52% = 1.30%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.82% + 0.52% = 2.34%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.34%, ranging from 1.28% to 1.40%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.82%, ranging from 1.30% to 2.34%

This round MAS Bill dropped 10 basis points from ML25134H 1.54% to ML25136X 1.44%, and the supply of the coming T-Bill BS25118F increased to $7.8 billion dollars. I expect further downward pressure on the cut-off yield.

My projected cut-off yield for BS25118F would follow the Yield Premium Method, i.e. 1.34%.