BS25115V 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/07/29/bs25115v-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25130E is 1.73%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.11% and standard deviation of 0.05%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25115V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.73% – 0.11% = 1.62%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.62% – 0.05% = 1.57%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.62% + 0.05% = 1.67%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 2.15%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.43% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25115V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.15%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.15% – 0.43% = 1.72%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.15% + 0.43% = 2.58%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.62%, ranging from 1.57% to 1.67%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.15%, ranging from 1.72% to 2.58%

This round MAS Bill dropped 12 basis points from ML25128H 1.85% to ML25130E 1.73%, and the supply of the coming T-Bill BS25115V remained at $7.6 billion dollars.

The drop in MAS Bill yield and stay flat in T-bill supply would exert a small downward pressure on the coming T-Bill cut-off yield. My projection for BS25115V cut-off yield would follow the Yield Premium Projection at 1.62%.