BS25114N 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/07/15/bs25114n-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

__

Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25128H is 1.85%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.11% and standard deviation of 0.06%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25114N would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.85% – 0.11% = 1.74%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.74% – 0.06% = 1.68%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.74% + 0.06% = 1.80%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 2.29%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.40% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25114N would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.29%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.29% – 0.40% = 1.89%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.29% + 0.40% = 2.69%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.74%, ranging from 1.68% to 1.80%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.29%, ranging from 1.89% to 2.69%

This round MAS Bill only dropped 3 basis points from ML25126Z 1.88% to ML25128H 1.85%, and the supply of the coming T-Bill BS25114N increased slightly to $7.6 billion dollars.

The small drop in MAS Bill yield and slight increase in T-bill supply would exert a small downward pressure on the coming T-Bill cut-off yield. My projection for BS25114N cut-off yield would follow the Yield Premium Projection at 1.74%.