BS25113W 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/07/01/bs25113w-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25126Z is 1.88%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.12% and standard deviation of 0.05%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25113W would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.88% – 0.12% = 1.76%
Projected Lower Yield = 1.76% – 0.05% = 1.71%
Projected Higher Yield = 1.76% + 0.05% = 1.81%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 2.39%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.37% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25113W would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.39%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.39% – 0.37% = 2.02%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.39% + 0.37% = 2.76%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 1.76%, ranging from 1.71% to 1.81%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.39%, ranging from 2.02% to 2.76%

This round MAS Bill dropped 21 basis points from ML25124E 2.09% to ML25126Z 1.88%. The supply of the coming T-Bill BS25113W stayed the same at $7.5 billion dollars.

The sizeable drop in MAS Bill yield would lower the coming T-Bill cut-off yield. My projection for BS25113W cut-off yield would follow the Yield Premium Projection at 1.76%.