BS25111T 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/06/03/bs25111t-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25122V is 2.24%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.11% and standard deviation of 0.05%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25111T would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.24% – 0.11% = 2.13%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.13% – 0.05% = 2.08%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.13% + 0.05% = 2.18%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 2.59%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.30% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25111T would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.59%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.59% – 0.30% = 2.29%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.59% + 0.30% = 2.89%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.13%, ranging from 2.08% to 2.18%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.59%, ranging from 2.29% to 2.89%

This round MAS Bill dropped 4 basis points from ML25120W 2.28% to ML25122V 2.24%. The supply of the coming T-Bill BS25111T increases by another $100 million dollars to $7.6 billion dollars.

The small drop in MAS Bill yield and slight increase in the T-bill supply would lower the coming T-Bill cut-off yield. My projection for BS25111T cut-off yield would follow the Yield Premium Projection at 2.13%.