BS25109V 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/05/06/bs25109v-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25118E is 2.40%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.12% and standard deviation of 0.06%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25109V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.40% – 0.12% = 2.28%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.28% – 0.06% = 2.22%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.28% + 0.06% = 2.34%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 2.77%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.25% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25109V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.77%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.77% – 0.25% = 2.52%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.77% + 0.25% = 3.02%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.28%, ranging from 2.22% to 2.34%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.77%, ranging from 2.52% to 3.02%

This round MAS Bill dropped 8 basis points from ML25116V 2.48% to ML25118E 2.40%. The supply of the coming T-Bill BS25109V remained at $7.4 billion dollars.

The bearish sentiment seems to slow down with the institutions, and probably with the retail investors as well. My projection for the coming T-bill cut-off yield would follow the Yield Premium Projection at 2.28%.