BS25108N 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/04/22/bs25108n-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML25116V is 2.48%. Considering the 2025 statistics with average yield premium of -0.12% and standard deviation of 0.06%. With that, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25108N would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.48% – 0.12% = 2.36%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.36% – 0.06% = 2.42%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.36% + 0.06% = 2.30%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

Based on 3rd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection:

From the trendline projection chart, the projected yield is approximately at 2.85%. With standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.21% as seen in the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table in 2025, the projected cut-off-yield for BS25108N would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.85%
Projected Lower Yield = 2.85% – 0.21% = 2.64%
Projected Higher Yield = 2.85% + 0.21% = 3.06%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.36%, ranging from 2.30% to 2.42%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.85%, ranging from 2.64% to 3.06%

This round MAS Bill dropped 20 basis points from ML25114W 2.68% to ML25116V 2.48%. The supply of the coming T-Bill BS25108N continued to remain the same as the previous T-bill at $7.4 billion dollars.

The bearish sentiment seems to continue weighing heavily in the heart of institutions, and likely with the retail investors as well. My projection for the coming T-bill cut-off yield would follow the Yield Premium Projection at 2.36%.