BS25106X 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/03/27/bs25106x-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to BS25106X 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.73%, ranging from 2.67% to 2.79%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.95%, ranging from 2.76% to 3.14%

My projected yield was 2.78%.

Yesterday (27 March 2025) the auction results for BS25106X was released here: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS25106X&issue_date=2025-04-01

BS25106X Cut-Off Yield is 2.73%, exactly as projected by the Yield Premium method, but 5 basis points below my own pick of 2.78%. Compare with the previous T-bill issue BS25105T, it shot up 17 basis points, which was a surprise. It might be contributed by lower demand as the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.14, a 0.50 drop from 2.64 for BS25105T.