BS25103S 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/02/13/bs25103s-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to BS25103S 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.77%, ranging from 2.69% to 2.85%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.10%, ranging from 2.78% to 3.42%

My projected yield was 2.94%.

Today (13 February 2025) the auction results for BS25103S was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS25103S&issue_date=2025-02-18

BS25103S Cut-Off Yield is 2.90%, 14 basis points below previous T-bill issue BS25102Z, and 4 basis points below my projected yield 2.94%.

The auction result is more aligned with my projection, in contrast with last tranche which was an upside anomaly, a pleasant festive surprise for those who applied.