BS25101F 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/01/16/bs25101f-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to BS25101F 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.96%, ranging from 2.88% to 3.04%

Polynomial Trendline Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.12%, ranging from 2.80% to 3.44%

Today (16 January 2025) the auction results for BS25101F was released here: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS25101F&issue_date=2025-01-21

BS25101F Cut-Off Yield is 2.99%, 6 basis points below previous T-bill issue BS25100E, and 3 basis points below my projected yield 3.02%.