BS24118Z 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/09/12/bs24118z-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to BS24118Z 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.07%, ranging from 2.98% to 3.16%

Polynomial Trendline Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 2.78%, ranging from 2.60% to 2.96%

Today (12 September 2024) the auction results for BS24118Z was released here: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24118Z&issue_date=2024-09-17

BS24118Z Cut-Off Yield is 3.10%, just 3 basis points above the projected yield for the Yield Premium Projection method, but the revised 2nd Order Polynomial Trendline Projection method had overly underestimated the projected yield.