BS24117F 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/08/29/bs24117f-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

__

Refer to BS24117F 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.25%, ranging from 3.16% to 3.34%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.70%, ranging from 3.57% to 3.83%

Today (29 August 2024) the auction results for BS24117F was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24117F&issue_date=2024-09-03

BS24117F Cut-Off Yield is 3.13%, it is 3 basis points below the projected range of the Yield Premium Projection method, not within the upper half of that range as I speculated.