BS24116E 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/08/15/bs24116e-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to BS24116E 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.40%, ranging from 3.31% to 3.49%

Polynomial Trendline Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.77%, ranging from 3.67% to 3.87%

Today (15 August 2024) the auction results for BS24116E was released here: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24116E&issue_date=2024-08-20

BS24116E Cut-Off Yield is 3.34%, 6 basis points below my guess of 3.40%, but still within the lower half of the projected yield range with the Yield Premium Projection method.