BS24115A 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/08/01/bs24115a-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to BS24115A 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.51%, ranging from 3.42% to 3.60%

Polynomial Trendline Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.81%, ranging from 3.74% to 3.88%

Today (1 August 2024) the auction results for BS24115A was released here: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24115A&issue_date=2024-08-06

BS24115A Cut-Off Yield is 3.40%, 2 basis points below the lower boundary of the projected yield range using Yield Premium Projection method. Also way below my own suppected range of 3.51% to 3.60%.