BS24111X 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Prediction

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/06/06/bs24111x-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-prediction/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to BS24111X 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.62%, ranging from 3.52% to 3.72%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.75%, ranging from 3.67% to 3.83%

Today (6 June 2024) the auction results for BS24111X was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24111X&issue_date=2024-06-11

BS24111X Cut-Off Yield is 3.76%, just 1 basis point above the projected yield in the Polynomial Trendline Projection method, but higher than the projected yield range based on Yield Premium Projection method.