BS24108V 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/04/23/bs24108v-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table are shown below:

The cut-off yield of ML24116A is 3.92%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.24% and standard deviation of 0.11% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24108V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.92% – 0.24% = 3.68%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.68% – 0.11% = 3.57%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.68% + 0.11% = 3.79%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart is shown here:

Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.09% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24108V would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.72%
Projected Lower Yield = 3.72% – 0.09% = 3.63%
Projected Higher Yield = 3.72% + 0.09% = 3.81%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.68%, ranging from 3.57% to 3.79%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.72%, ranging from 3.63% to 3.81%