BS24105X 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Prediction

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/03/14/bs24105x-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-prediction/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to the blog post BS24105X 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

Yield Premium Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60%, ranging from 3.50% to 3.70%

Polynomial Trendline Projection:
Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60%, ranging from 3.50% to 3.70%

Today (14 March 2024) the auction results for BS24105X was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24105X&issue_date=2024-03-19

BS24105X Cut-Off Yield is 3.78%, once again above the projected yield range for both methods.