BS24104T 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here:

https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/02/27/bs24104t-6-month-t-bill-yield-projection/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Using the same projection template in BS24103H 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection, here is my yield prediction for BS24104T.

Yield Premium Projection

The updated 6-Month T-Bill vs 12-Week MAS Bill Yield chart and the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table:

The cut-off yield of ML24108N is 3.95%. Considering the average yield premium of -0.34% and standard deviation of 0.06% in 2024 so far, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24104T would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.95% - 0.34% = 3.61%

Projected Lower Yield = 3.61% - 0.06% = 3.55%

Projected Higher Yield = 3.61% + 0.06% = 3.67%

Polynomial Trendline Projection

The updated Polynomial Trendline Projection chart:

Based on this trendline projection method and the standard deviation of T-bill cut-off yield at 0.09% (refer to the T-Bill Yield Premium Statistics table) in 2024, the projected cut-off-yield for BS24104T would be:

Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.56%

Projected Lower Yield = 3.56% - 0.09% = 3.47%

Projected Higher Yield = 3.56% + 0.09% = 3.65%

Summary

Yield Premium Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.61%, ranging from 3.55% to 3.67%

Polynomial Trendline Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.56%, ranging from 3.47% to 3.65%