BS24104T 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Prediction

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here:

https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/02/29/bs24104t-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-prediction/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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Refer to BS24104T 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection for the projection:

1. MAS Bills to T-Bills Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.61% Projected Yield Range = 3.55% to 3.67%
2. Polynomial Trendline Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60% Projected Yield Range = 3.49% to 3.71%

Today (29 February 2024) the auction results for BS24104T was released here:

https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24104T&issue_date=2024-03-05

BS24104T Cut-Off Yield is 3.80%, above the projected yield range for both methods. Reason for the upside is probably due to lower demand as the Bid-to-Cover Ratio is 1.94, first time under 2 since October 2023.