BS24103H 6-Month T-Bill Auction Results vs Prediction

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2024/02/15/bs24103h-6-month-t-bill-auction-results-vs-prediction/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

__

I made a BS24103H 6-Month T-Bill Yield Projection yesterday (14 February 2024) using 2 methods:

1. MAS Bills to T-Bills Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.62% Projected Yield Range = 3.57% to 3.67%
2. Polynomial Trendline Projection: Projected Cut-Off Yield = 3.60% Projected Yield Range = 3.49% to 3.71%

Today (15 February 2024) the auction results for BS24103H was released here:
https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills/auctions-and-issuance-calendar/auction-t-bill?issue_code=BS24103H&issue_date=2024-02-20

BS24103H Cut-Off Yield is 3.66%, falls within the projected yield range for both methods.

With the latest set of MAS Bill and T-Bill auction results, the T-Bill over MAS Bill Yield Premium Statistics is updated below:

And the Polynomial Trendline Projection chart is also updated here:

Based on this trendline projection, looks like the next 6-month T-bill BS24104T is going to be around 3.56%, ranging from 3.47% to 3.65%.