6-Month T-Bill 2025 Quarter 1 Projection Review

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/03/31/6-month-t-bill-2025-quarter-1-projection-review/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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We are now at the end of first quarter of 2025. I thought of doing a quarter end review on the projections of the 6-month T-bills in this quarter.

Here is the tabulation of the projection results in first quarter of 2025:

On average, the Yield Premium Method only underestimated by 2 basis points below the actual cut-off yield, and it had a high hit rate of 88.5% in capturing the actual yield within its projected yield range.

On the other hand, the Polynomial Trendline Method overestimated by 6 basis points above the actual yield, and its hit rate is even higher at 92.3%. However, I would argue that the higher hit rate is contributed by the wider projected yield range than its accuracy.

Together with the findings in my blog post 6-Month T-Bill 2024 Year End Projection Review, I will continue to rely more on the Yield Premium Method, which has better projection power with smaller deviations and high hit rate.