6-Month T-Bill 2025 Half Year Projection Review

This Opinion post first appeared in my blog here: https://pwlcm.wordpress.com/2025/07/01/6-month-t-bill-2025-half-year-projection-review/

Disclaimer: This post is just for educational sharing purposes. Please do your own due diligence on any products mentioned in this post.

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First half of the year has passed. Time to do a half year review on the projections of the 6-month T-bills cut-off yields during this period.

Here is the tabulation of the projection results in first half of 2025:

The Yield Premium Method on average underestimated only 4 basis points below the actual cut-off yield, and more than half hit rate of 61.5% in capturing the actual yield within its projected yield range.

The Trendline Project Method on average overestimated by 34 basis points above the actual cut-off yield, i.e. an order of magnitude larger than the Yield Premium Method. Despite a generally wider projected yield range, its hit rate is actually lower at 38.5%.

I will continue to rely more on the Yield Premium Method.